Glycerin: When the high position slips and falls wildly, when will it fall?

Since the end of January 2018, the domestic glycerin market has continued to decline, the atmosphere of commercial investment has been relatively deserted, the market is prosperous, and the transaction price has been falling. The market is full of bearish atmosphere and limited operation.

　　From the price point of view, the 95% net water glycerin turnover in East China was 5800-6200 yuan / ton, and the 95% water glycerin turnover in South China was 6800-7000 yuan / ton, compared with the year-to-date, East China fell 1,300 yuan / ton And the decline was around 17.8%, while South China’s decline was relatively small, the price fell 700 yuan / ton, a decline of 9.3%. What is the reason for the decline in glycerol prices?

First of all, the raw material external disk declines significantly, the cost support weakens.

　　Crude glycerin is mainly used as raw material for refined glycerin. From the perspective of external disk price, in January, the price of crude glycerin was in the range of 500-520 US dollars/ton, and the current outer disk price fell to 455-470 US dollars/ton, the low end. Prices fell by $45/ton, while high-end prices fell by $50/ton, and fell by around 9%-9.6%. The price of crude glycerin has been slowly declining, and the cost support of domestic workers has been significantly weakened.

Secondly, factory shipments continue to be under pressure

Under the influence of environmental protection, the domestic industrial plant started to operate at a low level. Although some of the factory’s supply continued to be tight, but under the weak demand, the shipment continued to be under pressure, and some said that the goods were not smooth. At present, the factory offer is more confusing. Under the pressure of the downstream inquiries, the real space is large and the center of gravity has fallen sharply.

Again, the demand is weak and the market is limited.

Epichlorohydrin, polyether, and paints are the main downstream products of glycerin, and market operations are weak or continue to limit glycerin shipments. From the start of downstream products in the past three months, the overall start-up is lower, and the production of epichlorohydrin is less than 30%. Although the operating rate in February has increased, it is still operating at a lower level; the polyether device is terminated by the terminal. Due to the impact of shipments, the operating rate of the equipment has been declining; the paint and coating factory has been pressured by environmental inspections, and the start-up of the equipment has been limited. Some factories with smaller capacity are still parked.

　　From the price point of view, the price of epichlorohydrin and polyether dropped sharply. Its epichlorohydrin fell by 7,100 yuan/ton, a drop of 40.8%, while the price of polyether fell by 2,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.61%.

In summary, the domestic glycerin market is weak in raw materials and demand, and there is no new news in the short-term, the industry’s mentality continues to look down, when will the domestic glycerin market decline?